With the urbanization process and the end of the industrialization process, the peak of energy demand in China has come. By 2020, 2030 and 2050, the total energy demand in China will be reduced to 40 tons, 37.4 tons and 30 tons of standard coal.
This is the 26 held in Beijing "sixth global energy security think tank forum, quantitative and technical economics China Academy of Social Sciences" energy security and economic research "new energy technology innovation engineering research project group as the theme of the report:" the forum for supply side reform and optimizing the structure of energy revolution Chinese. "The conclusion of 2017-2050.
The report pointed out that, at present, about 70% of the population has actually entered the town and its surrounding areas, the urbanization process has been basically completed.
"Accordingly, China's large-scale urban construction and infrastructure construction will be completed, which will greatly reduce the high energy consumption of iron and steel, nonferrous metals, building materials and other industries demand related transportation energy demand will reach the peak." Li Ping, director of the Institute of quantitative economic and technical economics, said.
Among them, the impact of energy demand is more prominent is the real estate construction needs of cooling. According to this report, from 2006 to 2015, China was equivalent to building about 50 square meters of buildings for each city population. The current real estate market is dominated by a few people, much of the housing to improve housing demand and housing conditions of young people entering the city after the support, from the total amount that the total supply of housing has exceeded the total demand.
The report shows that currently 70% of China's energy and power demand from industry, iron and steel, nonferrous metals, building materials industry the three energy demand for industrial demand 1/3, these three industries will cause a drop in demand, their decline in coal demand, electricity and other related industries, the overall view, is expected to decline will lead to about 1/3 energy demand.
The report believes that the future growth of China's energy demand lies in high-end manufacturing and consumer living. But the energy needs of high-end manufacturing are much lower than those of steel, nonferrous metals, and metals (cement, glass, etc.). With the decline of energy demand, energy will no longer be the bottleneck of China's economy, but can balance the supply and demand. Under normal circumstances, the energy supply capacity should be slightly larger than demand, so as to achieve effective protection.
"Energy supply bottlenecks disappear, although in the short term may lead to energy production in parts of twisted configuration, in some areas such as wind, light, abandoned abandoned abandoned water phenomenon increased, but in the long run, will be conducive to the formation of the competition mechanism between energy suppliers." Li Ping said, "this will promote energy supplier innovation business model, technology model for end users to provide more personalized and high quality service, but also help promote the reform of China's energy system and power system."